2024 was anticipated to be all about AI, but did it truly mark the rise of AI PCs? When looking at sales figures and expert analysis, that appears to not be the case. Daniel Newman, a semiconductor analyst, described the AI PC and smartphone “supercycle” as somewhat of a letdown. Using a term like “bust” can unsettle both investors and average consumers, painting a grim outlook. However, Newman provides a broader perspective, which he kindly expanded on through a detailed post on X.
So, did AI PCs flop? Was the fuss over Copilot+ PCs hyped up beyond reality? Do consumers genuinely have an interest in AI PCs at all? Let’s unravel these questions.
### The Enigmatic World of AI PCs
Just like the Doctor from Doctor Who once explained time as a “big ball of wibbly wobbly, timey wimey stuff,” delving into the complexities of Copilot+ PCs and AI PCs feels equally intricate. Crafting such a whimsical phrase might not be in my repertoire, but the sentiment is apt when it comes to separating AI PCs from Copilot+ PCs.
To put it simply, while every Copilot+ PC is an AI PC, the reverse isn’t always true. Our curated lists of the best AI PCs and Copilot+ PCs have surprisingly minimal overlap. This primarily stems from the fact that until recently, every Copilot+ PC utilized Qualcomm Snapdragon processors—alongside models like the Snapdragon X Elite and Snapdragon X Plus. Now, however, there are Intel-powered Copilot+ PCs like the ASUS Zenbook S 14 entering the arena, and even AMD is joining the fray. Yet for most of 2024, the Snapdragon processors were the main players.
While it’s true that Qualcomm only captured a meager 0.8% of the PC market in Q3 of 2024, with just 720,000 units sold featuring Snapdragon X chips, these figures don’t fully capture the demand for AI PCs. Some users can’t leverage Windows on Arm PCs due to app compatibility issues, while others are dissuaded simply by the notion that “not all apps work.” This can be enough for users—especially less tech-savvy ones—to overlook such devices entirely.
### Exploring Windows on Arm
Discussing AI PCs in 2024 cannot be complete without mentioning Windows on Arm. Microsoft has spent years enhancing user experience on Arm-powered PCs. The Windows 11 version 24H2 has improved Arm device performance, supported by Microsoft’s Prism emulation technology, which optimizes non-native app performance. Applications like Google Chrome, Adobe Photoshop, Davinci Resolve, and Blender now feature native Windows on Arm support, expanding the platform’s capabilities.
For fans of Windows on Arm, 2024 was a notable year in terms of platform progress. However, “notable” doesn’t always equate to “universally applicable.” Some applications still underperform on Windows on Arm, resulting in enterprise IT departments and creators shying away due to legacy compatibility concerns.
### Unveiling Intel and AMD Copilot+ PCs
For users yearning for AI PC options beyond Arm processors, Intel and AMD have stepped up to the plate. Although it took time, non-Arm Copilot+ PCs, which promise complete app compatibility and robust AI-enhanced features, have arrived.
As observed by our own Ben Wilson, “The prospect of a comparable x86-64 chip from Intel, holding its own against Snapdragon X’s exceptional battery life, is undeniably appealing.” Wilson elaborated upon discussing the Intel Core Ultra Series 2 processor inside the ASUS Zenbook S 14.
As these AI PCs hit the shelves with full app compatibility and Snapdragon-comparable battery performance, they have the potential to catch public interest in 2025. This generation of devices, such as the Zenbook S 14, could ignite a new trend in the AI PC market.
These Intel and AMD-driven AI PCs are not exactly new but achieving “Copilot+” designation has deemed them ready for a broader audience. Designations require systems to meet specific benchmarks, like possessing a NPU with at least 40 TOPS of performance. With features such as Windows Recall, Click To Do, Live Captions, and real-time translation becoming available, consumers have reasons to take note.
As the landscape welcomes Intel and AMD Copilot+ PCs, it will be intriguing to see how sales evolve. These developments suggest that AI PC sales might just boom next year, in 2025.
### Do AI Features Drive Sales?
A critical dialogue in the discussion involves questioning whether AI capabilities are a deciding factor for consumers buying new PCs. Take a look at the Surface Pro 11—it could simply be cherished for its design and functionality, with any Copilot+ PC AI features being an afterthought.
According to an IDC report, AI is not currently a primary motivator in PC purchases. Purchases tend to be influenced by other aspects, such as high-end internals and premium specifications.
Reflecting on our review of the Surface Pro 11, Editor-in-Chief Daniel Rubino said it “outperforms all its predecessors and rivals other top Windows laptops.” The device’s 10 hours of real-world usage, high-quality OLED display, and superior cameras and mics are features consumers are likely prioritizing, leaving its AI functionalities arguably secondary.
Rubino also remarked that “AI as a feature on the Surface Pro 11 currently feels underwhelming.” Even though the hardware’s potential for AI enhancements is promising, few compelling AI features are fully realized in Windows 11 at this stage.
### Are Copilot+ PCs Set for Success or Failure?
Claiming that Copilot+ PCs were failures right off the bat might not be entirely fair, but they certainly didn’t make the splash that many hoped for. A lackluster launch by Microsoft—highlighted by delays of exclusive features—coupled with Qualcomm’s Snapdragon dependence left many users confused regarding what differentiated a Copilot+ PC. Clarity on these distinctions is crucial for turning market curiosity into purchasing confidence.
Microsoft, Qualcomm, Intel, and AMD have all laid the necessary groundwork for the success of Copilot+ PCs. Still, widescale adoption and sales spikes we have yet to witness, much to Qualcomm’s reported chagrin.
The real test for Copilot+ PCs will emerge in 2025. Market patterns need to reflect consumer intent that gravitates towards these PCs not just for their specifications but for their AI features. However, should similar debates persist by next December, it might be time for Microsoft, Qualcomm, Intel, and AMD to rethink their strategies before hitting that panic button.
